Pakistan vs Bangladesh 3rd ODI Probable Playing 11

Pakistan versus Bangladesh’s third ODI selection seems far more of a health report regarding Pakistan than a matter of guesswork for Bangladesh. Mehidy Hasan Miraz’s team have played the same XI in both matches, though Shaheen Afridi’s team go into the Dhaka match with Hussain Talat’s shoulder problem still not certain, after he went to hospital during the second ODI.

The series has been very up and down in these two games. Bangladesh won the first match by eight wickets, after dismissing Pakistan for 114; then Pakistan drew the series in the second ODI with a score of 274, before getting Bangladesh all out for 114 in a rain-affected chase, and winning by 128 runs on DLS.

The final game is on Sunday, March 15th, at the Sher-e-Bangla National Stadium in Dhaka, beginning at 2:15 pm local time. The weather forecast suggests a hot afternoon and the chance of thunderstorms in the evening, which is relevant when teams are thinking about pace, spin, and lower-order batting cover on a pitch which has had more bounce than expected.

This makes the teams’ choices important. Bangladesh must decide whether a decider is the point to put in one more specialist bowler, and Pakistan must decide whether to stick with the pace-heavy team that won the second game, or change the balance if Talat is unable to play.

Bangladesh are likely to play the same XI

Bangladesh have had faith in the same eleven in the first two ODIs, and there has not been strong reason so far to think they require a change. Saif Hassan, Tanzid Hasan Tamim, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Litton Das, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Towhid Hridoy, Afif Hossain, Taskin Ahmed, Rishad Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, and Nahid Rana have been the main team in both matches.

That consistency is important. Bangladesh started the series with a plan to move Litton out of the opening position and back into the middle order, and that decision already appears more sensible after his 41 in the second ODI, even in a losing chase.

The bowling is the main reason Bangladesh ought to avoid making too many changes. Nahid Rana has taken six wickets in the series, including Pakistan’s first five wickets in the first ODI, and Mehidy Hasan Miraz has five wickets in the first two games.

Rishad Hossain has supported that pair well, and the seam bowling group still gives Bangladesh different options. Taskin bowls with high pace, Mustafizur gives angle and cutters, and Nahid offers the steep bounce that has caused Pakistan’s top order problems throughout the series.

The only real discussions on the bench are Shoriful Islam for extra left-arm seam or Tanvir Islam for a second specialist spinner. Both are possible selections from the team, but either move would mean Bangladesh having to give up batting depth or disrupt a bowling combination which has already got Pakistan out once and continued to take wickets in the second ODI.

I think Bangladesh will play the same team. The bigger question is not a new face, but better batting from the same XI, particularly in the first seven overs where they were 15 for 3 in the second game after having cruised in the chase in the first.

Pakistan’s balance depends on Talat

Pakistan’s top-order plan now seems fixed. Shaheen Afridi had said before the series that Sahibzada Farhan, Maaz Sadaqat, and Shamyl Hussain would be the new top three, and that three have played both matches, with Maaz already the best with 93 runs in the series.

The bigger bowling decision came in the second ODI, when Pakistan brought Haris Rauf in for Abrar Ahmed. It worked immediately: Haris finished with 3 for 26 in 4.3 overs, and Pakistan’s attack looked much better on a pitch that had pace and bounce at the start.

That is why the Haris versus Abrar discussion is not a 50-50 call at this point. From the evidence of the first two matches, Pakistan are more likely to trust extra pace again, and then use Maaz Sadaqat and Salman Ali Agha to provide supporting overs if needed, rather than go back to a specialist spinner from the beginning.

Talat’s injury is the actual selection issue. Cricbuzz reported that he was taken to hospital after being taken off on a stretcher, and ESPNcricinfo’s update said the type and extent of the shoulder injury would only be known after further medical assessment, meaning Pakistan have no clear certainty before the match.

If Talat is fit, Pakistan can play the same team and have a sensible balance: seven batting options, three main fast bowlers, and enough part-time spin around them. If Talat is ruled out, Pakistan then have to choose between Saad Masood for batting shape and secondary spin, or Abrar Ahmed for a more specialist wicket-taking option. That second choice is an idea from the team composition and the combinations Pakistan have already used in Dhaka.

I think Pakistan would keep Haris and bring in Saad Masood if Talat is unable to play. That plan protects the middle order on a ground where Pakistan have been all out in both innings of the series, and it avoids making Abdul Samad and Faheem Ashraf a finishing pair with too much to do. This isn’t a definite team announcement, just what the teams might be for Pakistan against Bangladesh in the 3rd ODI.

Bangladesh’s expected XI

Pakistan’s expected XI

What the likely XIs tell us

Bangladesh don’t have a lot of selection problems, but they do have some. If the pitch looks green again when the captains flip for first use, Shoriful Islam might be brought in – but that would probably mean dropping either Afif Hossain or one of the main bowlers, and neither of those feels right before a final match.

There is also a spin option. Tanvir Islam is still in the team, and Mirpur is a ground where captains often think about having a second slow left-arm bowler, but in the first two ODIs fast bowlers got more help early on. Bangladesh already have Mehidy and Rishad as their main spin bowlers.

Pakistan’s bigger decision is whether the second ODI pitch was an unusual one, or really showed what this pitch is like. They got good results from Haris Rauf, Maaz Sadaqat took three wickets too, and the attack as a whole was better suited to a pitch where Bangladesh lost wickets for 13, 13 and 15 when chasing.

Because of that pattern of early wickets, Pakistan are unlikely to be cautious. Shaheen Afridi and Mohammad Wasim Jr can bowl at the stumps with the new ball, Haris gives them speed in the middle overs, and Faheem Ashraf is the bowler to change things up if the ball gets softer, or a rain break changes how the game is going.

The weather makes a strong case for seam bowling even more. The forecast for Dhaka says there could be storms in the evening, and if another break for rain happens, captains will want bowlers who can bowl quickly at a good length, without waiting for the pitch to break up.

What the expected XIs say

Bangladesh’s likely XI says they value players knowing what they have to do more than changing the team around. Litton stays in the middle order, Mehidy still leads the attack and the game, and the same bowling attack gets another go after Nahid took six wickets and Mehidy five in the first two matches.

Pakistan’s likely XI says they’ve found what their rebuild will look like, but the middle order is still not very solid. The top order is set, Maaz Sadaqat is already the top run-scorer in the series, and Haris Rauf’s return made the attack better – but Talat’s fitness could still mean one more change before the toss.

So, the clearest guess for the playing 11s for this final match is simple: Bangladesh should go with the same team, Pakistan should keep Haris Rauf, and the only thing left to sort out is whether Hussain Talat is well enough to keep his place.

Main points

Final thoughts

Pakistan versus Bangladesh’s 3rd ODI’s likely playing 11s are pretty much decided on one side, and depend on the conditions on the other. Bangladesh have no good reason to change after playing the same XI twice, but Pakistan still need to decide about Talat before the team sheet is really clear. The safest guess before the game is Bangladesh unchanged, Pakistan unchanged if Talat is OK, and Saad Masood as the most likely replacement if he isn’t. Once the toss happens in Dhaka, the pitch will give the last clue, but the general shape of both XIs is already clear.